Setting the stage for COP30

Views From the Marsh - David Owen

Something tells me that we will be writing a lot more on COP30 in the next few days.

But, worth noting that the (near) real time indicators produced by Carbon Monitor point to another rise in CO₂ emissions in 2025, led - ranked by their contribution to this year’s increase in emissions - by the US ( its CO₂ emissions +2.7% on year on the latest estimates), the EU-27 (+0.9%, distorted as Marchel has highlighted, by the absence of wind this year, see here), COP30 host Brazil (+3.4%), India (+0.4%), Japan (+0.8%), and the UK (+1.5%).

Meanwhile, CO₂ emissions in China are thought by Carbon Monitor to have fallen (-1.2%), broadly the same as Russia (-1%), whilst they have risen in the rest of the world (+1.6%)

Holding the line at a 1.5°C hotter world no longer seems possible. The question is whether we go through any climate tipping points in the next few years, which brings a much more sudden sense of urgency to the issue.

Last week we highlighted the case of Jamaica, hit by the latest storms.

If the past is any guide, this year’s substantial hit to GDP will be followed by a period of stronger growth, a spike in inflation and much higher levels of government borrowing and debt - see here “Cat bonds and natural disasters” (here).

What then of the Philippines, rocked again in recent days by a succession of significant natural disasters and ranked by some as the most disaster prone country on the planet (see here)?

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