Europe needs to shift its focus as far as climate change is concerned

Views From the Marsh - David Owen

According to Our World in Data, in 2022 Spain’s carbon footprint was equivalent to 5.7 tonnes per capita, compared to 16.5 tonnes per capita in the US, 7.2 tonnes per capita in China, 7.9 tonnes per capita in the EU-27 and 7.6 tonnes per capita in the UK.

Spain also offshores emissions a lot less than say the UK. (We recently highlighted that over half of the UK’s total carbon footprint was embedded in its imports of goods and services, much of it embedded in imports from the EU.)

Moreover, we calculate that in the the first nine months of this year CO₂ emissions in Spain were 1.9% lower than the equivalent period of 2023, compared to the 0.5% rise seen globally, 1.6% increase in the US and 5.2% rise in India.

However, as recent events in Spain again unfortunately illustrate, being a low emitter does not necessarily reduce the risk of extreme climate related events.

Of course, this a point that can be made for many countries and regions. The economic and human cost of more extreme climate related events drilled down by NUTS-2 or NUTS-3 region, for example, is not simply a function of the emissions of the country concerned, but what is happening at a more global level, and the geography, microclimate and exposure of that region.

Importantly, recent events are another reminder that far more focus needs to be on adapting to climate change - be it the increased probability of flash floods, storms, successive days when the temperature exceeds 30⁰C, 35⁰C or even 40⁰C, droughts and wildfires. This includes the infrastructure.

We have highlighted before that, drilling down to a NUTS-3 level (over 1,500 regions of the EU-27), summers are getting significantly hotter in Europe, increasing the probability of flashfloods - something that should not come as a surprise to anyone.

The second chart below shows the so-called cooling day index for Valencia, with a clear upward trend. A benchmark of 24⁰C (a relatively comfortable temperature) is used. If on any given day the average temperature is 24⁰C, or more, then 21⁰C is subtracted from this figure (on the basis that at some points during the day, the temperature would have been significantly higher than 24⁰C).

All such numbers are recorded by month. We have made use of a 12 month moving average, to better show the trend, since 1979.

But Valencia is not the hottest NUTS-3 region of Europe. Moreover, as we continue to highlight the reported economic costs of natural disasters tends to be significantly higher in the US, than Europe.

And, these costs tend to be skewed towards only a few US states.

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